McKinsey Institute for Black Economic Mobility For example, one of North America’s leading retailers is actively deploying inventory across the network to regions with the biggest product-availability deficits. According to McKinsey & Company—which has been surveying 1,000-plus U.S. consumers ages 18 and up on a weekly, ongoing basis since March 16—while discretionary spending categories including travel, out-of-home entertainment, apparel and footwear, and home furnishings are down, shelter-in-place directives and social distancing have caused American buyers to spend more in a … Retailers can also raise cash by working with their distribution partners to sell off excess inventory. La crise du coronavirus a presque complètement fait fondre les profits de l'industrie mondiale de la mode : McKinsey prévoit une baisse de pas moins de 93% cette année. We expect FD&M deal or collaboration activity to increase across all archetypes, but especially new business models and adjacencies (archetype 3) and capabilities (archetype 4). A survey of consumers in China, India, and Indonesia shows how the COVID-19 outbreak has affected their plans for discretionary spending--and which shifts could be part of the next normal. The authors wish to thank Marius van Roekel for his contributions to this article. At the same time, store closures and sharp declines in discretionary consumer spending have crippled nonessential retail (other non-food, apparel, fashion, and luxury products). Practical resources to help leaders navigate to the next normal: guides, tools, checklists, interviews and more. Please click "Accept" to help us improve its usefulness with additional cookies. The first step to redefining M&A and partnership strategy is to understand what the next normal means for each brand and retailer. We encourage retailers to take four steps now as they contemplate M&A and partnerships going forward, grounded in the three C’s of excellent M&A strategists (competitive advantage, capacity, and conviction). Digital upends old models. Respondents in the United Kingdom and the United States, by contrast, were more likely to say they would increase their online spending on groceries and household items. According to McKinsey & Company—which has been surveying 1,000-plus U.S. consumers ages 18 and up on a weekly, ongoing basis since March 16—while discretionary spending categories including travel, out-of-home entertainment, apparel and footwear, and home furnishings are down, shelter-in-place directives and social distancing have caused American buyers to spend more in a … Other opportunities in food service may also materialize, as some food service players (for example, quick-service-restaurant players) face financial difficulties. It is less likely this will occur in the short term as nearly all grocers have seen a spike in sales that is expected to persist through the end of 2020; potential sales declines driven by pantry unloading may not occur until 2021 depending on how long COVID-19 crisis lasts. Now is the time for retailers to think about M&A postcrisis. In the post-COVID-19 tight credit market, we expect that synergy capture expectations, and track record, will matter to investors, which makes it even more important to think through synergy ambitions and value-capture plans up front. Further consolidation into existing or new “brand houses” (archetype 1). Please click "Accept" to help us improve its usefulness with additional cookies. Please note that McKinsey & Company does not endorse any of the listed websites or their sponsors. Given changes in consumer spending across channels as well as persistent concerns about health and safety, and despite the weaker economic outlook, we expect retail M&A activity to accelerate as the crisis stabilizes. Health screenings can quickly identify workers who are sick. Please note that McKinsey & Company does not endorse any of the listed websites or their sponsors. For example, a leading grocer’s category teams are reallocating shelf space for canned goods and working closely with suppliers to focus on availability and replenishment speed rather than promotions. Learn what it means for you, and meet the people who create it. And all staff, whether long-term or temporary hires, should undergo training in proper health procedures and be given the right protective equipment. Today, several AF&L categories (for example, footwear, apparel, and jewelry) are some of the retail categories hardest hit by the crisis. Responding to the dip in on-shelf availability, retailers are working closely with companies across their supplier bases, including consumer-packaged-goods (CPG) makers, distributors, and co-manufacturers. The crisis wrought by the COVID-19 pandemic is first and foremost a human tragedy. Retail. McKinsey & Company è una società internazionale di consulenza manageriale. 2 McKinsey Insights: Beyond coronavirus: The path to the next normal 3 McKinsey: Adapting customer experience in the time of coronavirus. Our mission is to help leaders in multiple sectors develop a deeper understanding of the global economy. Reinvent your business. Unleash their potential. Other downstream opportunities in food service may materialize as some players face financial pressures. The retailer is also adjusting its longer-term purchases, in the expectation that the pandemic will accelerate the adoption of e-commerce. Identifying the opportunities for growth in the next normal—and which areas can be accelerated via partnerships and M&A—will be the first step to reshaping M&A strategy. Self-isolation, quarantining, and stay-at-home orders during the coronavirus pandemic have all contributed to notable increases in online shopping and local deliveries for nondiscretionary goods. These approaches include capping purchases of highly sought-after items, reserving certain periods of the day for shoppers at greatest risk of infection, and cleaning and sanitizing stores frequently. With most retailers now in the second phase of their coronavirus response, we’ve updated our guidance for leadership teams. There are several examples of cooperation across industries to get products on shelves, especially in high-density urban areas. Learn about our use of cookies, and collaboration with select social media and trusted analytics partners here Learn more about cookies, Opens in new tab. How COVID-19 is changing consumer behavior –now and forever As the world begins its slow pivot from managing the COVID-19 crisis to recovery and the reopening of economies, it’s clear that the period of lockdown has had a profound impact on how people live. Unleash their potential. The period of … Please use UP and DOWN arrow keys to review autocomplete results. UK faces skills shortage as COVID-19 splits job market, McKinsey says. Retail is one of the sectors most affected by COVID-19, in both positive and negative ways. tab. Retail Banking. A leading mass retailer is pursuing all these measures with a special focus on improving its on-shelf availability and its replenishment speed. Where are the growth spaces today and where will they be in the future? As the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) spreads across the globe, we're monitoring key consumer behavior thresholds to help fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) brands and retailers understand the status of each market, as well as how to best respond. Indian respondents share how their food-consumption habits have changed since COVID-19 began, and how their behaviors could change in the pandemic’s aftermath. L’épidémie de coronavirus a engendré des changements radicaux dans notre comportement d’achat : les consommateurs réévaluent leurs habitudes et décisions en matière de consommation. McKinsey Quarterly Carrie McCabe Contributor. Banks will play a critical role in this for their customers, their employees, and for the economy at large. And respondents in all four countries said they were likely to increase their online spending on a wider variety of items. McKinsey Global Institute ... stable, growing by around 4 percent over the previous five years. In the AF&L sector, recent analysis indicates bifurcation of the market with respect to price positioning. Indian respondents share how their spending habits have changed since COVID-19 began, and how their behaviors could change once the crisis subsides. Roll-ups of smaller regional or independent FD&M players (archetype 1) may accelerate in 2021, as these retailers face sustained sales declines driven by consumers shifting to alternative channels or players with stronger omnichannel offerings. A retailer, for example, has been offering day-care benefits and one-time cash incentives and is staggering shifts to improve retention and reduce turnover during this critical period. Please click "Accept" to help us improve its usefulness with additional cookies. From how we interact with our friends and family to working from home and so much more. Retail banks have a prominent role to play in guiding the world toward economic recovery, while preserving the health of their organizations. UK faces skills shortage as COVID-19 splits job market, McKinsey says. Healthy, safe, and local. To conserve cash, retailers can sell more merchandise they already own by reallocating inventory among geographies. Practical resources to help leaders navigate to the next normal: guides, tools, checklists, interviews and more. These players may become targets for more resilient competitors. Between shifts, retailers can suspend operations at their distribution centers so that cleaning crews can sanitize equipment. Serviamo le principali aziende, istituzioni e organizzazioni non profit a livello mondiale. Despite this challenging environment, analyses of past crises have shown that there is still potential for value creation through M&A across industries; for further detail, please see the recent cross-industry article, “The power of through-cycle M&A.”. Interazione sicura, il negozio post Covid. Another practice compensates for the decline in store traffic. By Reuters Staff. McKinsey: 75% of Americans have changed brands during the pandemic. The contents of this site, including any statements, articles, graphics, charts, checklists, and other materials (“Content”) are for informational purposes only. Most transformations fail. The Auditor-General’s office published its second report on the government’s spending during the Covid-19 pandemic. Read more: Retail won't snap back. Now more than ever, maintaining the flexibility of logistics is essential for limiting disruption to essential services. Our flagship business publication has been defining and informing the senior-management agenda since 1964. Please click "Accept" to help us improve its usefulness with additional cookies. Particular challenges have arisen in global retail supply chains, where the pandemic’s far-reaching effects have weighed heavily on the health and well-being of employees and jeopardized livelihoods and economic lifelines in many communities. In questo scenario, il conteggio dei casi continua a crescere, data l’elevata trasmissibilità del virus. One fashion retailer lowered the order size necessary to qualify for free shipments and relaxed return windows to give customers more flexibility. Learn about our use of cookies, and collaboration with select social media and trusted analytics partners here Learn more about cookies, Opens in new tab. Consumer confidence has considerably dropped as a result of the COVID-19 crisis, which is also impact- ing car-buying intent. COVID-19 stellt neben dem deutschen Gesundheitssystem auch die deutsche Wirtschaft vor große Herausforderungen. Across the more than 600 (non-AF&L) deals we surveyed, TRS for archetype 1 deals increased 2 percent, and TRS for archetype 4 deals increased 6 percent post-announcement. As the coronavirus pandemic disrupts the lives and livelihood of millions, retailers are working to understand what changes will be needed once the outbreak subsides and stores can reopen. by Stephanie Chan, Mahima Chugh, Felix Poh, and Simon Wintels Discretionary spending in some retail categories plummeted by as much as 90 percent at the peak of COVID-19 lockdown efforts aimed at easing the spread of the virus. In the United States in particular, many consumers stated they have tried store or generic brands for the first time, with many saying they were satisfied with the product and would purchase again. Understanding what targets (and what size targets) are feasible to acquire now versus later should inform how areas of exploration are prioritized. We also envision that a potential economic crisis will make it more important to carefully think through how a deal can help to sharpen and/or reposition the joint entity’s value proposition(s) to better service customers’ needs. By Reuters Staff. In the surveys noted above, McKinsey asked consumers whether they were planning to increase or decrease their in-store and online spending on various types of goods during the next two weeks. In Asia and the United States, but less so in Europe, we have seen store and brand switching due to proximity, availability, ease of use, and safety considerations, creating opportunities for new habit creation. A leading apparel retailer based in North America, for example, is working closely with its vendor base to review 40 percent of its buys for the upcoming fall season while simultaneously pruning its assortment for spring 2021. Downloads of delivery apps for grocery retailers increased by 100 to 200 percent over the same two-week period. In the United Kingdom, competition laws are being relaxed so that supermarket chains can cooperate and share transportation resources and depots—and get essential products on store shelves more readily. The longer the crisis lasts, the greater the likelihood that online and omnichannel purchasing will become the next normal. Flip the odds. The outbound-tender rate-reject index, which measures adherence to contracted rates for shipping, has also increased by 20 percent, indicating that carriers are rejecting contracted rates and instead selling capacity on the spot market. The implications of COVID-19 are just as high for potential sellers as they are for potential acquirers. The most likely are the leading ecosystems and larger FD&M companies with strong e-commerce positions that focus on essentials or well-performing brands, play in subsectors less affected by the crisis, and enjoy some combination of relatively low financial leverage, access to investment-grade debt, and a cash-heavy balance sheet. Please email us at: McKinsey Insights - Get our latest thinking on your iPhone, iPad, or Android device. Ces modifications offrent donc la possibilité d’attirer de nouveaux clients. This allows retailers to rationalize the scheduling and routing of deliveries, so that deliveries in the same area can be grouped together and sent out in one round of drop-offs by the same driver, saving time and mileage. With creative, resourceful responses to the pandemic, retail-supply-chain leaders can make sure that consumers are able to buy the goods they need while also maintaining the health and safety of both consumers and supply-chain workers. Something went wrong. Anne Sraders, “Private equity firms are sitting on $1.5 trillion in unspent cash, and looking to raise more,” Fortune, January 25, 2020, fortune.com. COVID Response Center. Analysis of more than 900 global retail M&A deals over the last ten years suggested the following archetypes (Exhibit 1): Historically, archetype 1 (in which the retailer or brand buys a like business, usually to gain scale or share) drove most of the deal value. Sales of nondiscretionary products, such as food, household, and personal-care products, have spiked, while sales of discretionary items, such as apparel and furnishings, have tailed off. McKinsey states that banks have a role to play as systemic stabilisers, particularly as a high number of homes may be susceptible to the effects of coronavirus measures. Please click "Accept" to help us improve its usefulness with additional cookies. Maintaining good workplace hygiene is also important. Keeping distribution-center workers healthy during the pandemic requires taking added and necessary precautions. FD&M players may double down on the acquisition of digital capabilities, platforms, and other value-adding bolt-ons (archetype 4) to enhance and transform existing operations quickly, given the relatively strong performance and persistent demonstration of touchless use cases. McKinsey Quarterly The next crisis might be no less surprising, but the right plans can keep it from causing as much disruption. But, despite the difficult economic outlook, we expect retail M&A activity to accelerate as the crisis stabilizes, creating opportunities for financially sound players to acquire or partner with less advantaged players. Never miss an insight. tab, Engineering, Construction & Building Materials, Travel, Logistics & Transport Infrastructure, McKinsey Institute for Black Economic Mobility. Retailers are now taking extraordinary measures to keep goods moving to store shelves and consumers’ doorsteps. collaboration with select social media and trusted analytics partners As shelter-in-place orders proliferate and potentially extend, and consumer anxiety about infection persists, consumers across age groups have already shifted spend to online channels. We’ve seen some companies reassign current employees to have more capacity in nondiscretionary categories where goods are selling fastest. Salesforce BrandVoice ... the workforce completely according to a just-released study by McKinsey and Lean ... altogether with their additional home responsibilities due to COVID. “US consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis,” March 2020; “Spanish consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis,” March 2020; “Italian consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis,” March 2020; “UK consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis,” March 2020. But, despite the difficult economic outlook, we expect retail M&A activity to accelerate as the crisis stabilizes, creating opportunities for financially sound players to acquire or partner with less advantaged players. COVID-19 and the onset of an economic slowdown may well reshape the landscape of retail deals and partnerships. Dive Brief: Automotive, consumer goods and retail supply chains are in danger of stock-outs by the end of March, late April and May, respectively, due to COVID-19 related supplier delays in China, according to a report McKinsey released this month. As retailers recalibrate their product orders to line up with consumer demand, they will need to cascade the changes across purchasing, planning, and inventory-management operations. Please email us at: McKinsey Insights - Get our latest thinking on your iPhone, iPad, or Android device. tab. We expect AF&L M&A and partnerships could evolve in three ways postcrisis, accelerating some of the trends described in our latest State of Fashion outlook beyond COVID-19. Other research underscores these early shifts. An analysis of retail traffic in major US metropolitan areas between February 19th and March 20th showed increases in traffic at grocery stores and warehouse chains, while movie theaters, restaurants, and malls remained closed. COVID-19 has impacted our lives in ways many of us couldn’t have imagined. It says: “Addressing the situation will require further global action and public–private coordination. cookies, US consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis, Spanish consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis, Italian consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis, UK consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis, McKinsey_Website_Accessibility@mckinsey.com. For me personally, juggling the joys of homeschooling my teenage boys with a packed work schedule has been a true personal test. Press enter to select and open the results on a new page. Retailers are taking several steps to do so. As the spread continues daily, retailers continue to look for new ways to provide consumers with essential and non-essential goods. 09.07.2020. Analysis of the financial crisis in 2008 also indicates that companies that take M&A action early may also benefit from more favorable valuations at first (Exhibit 2). People create and sustain change. Stores, logistics systems, distribution facilities, and supplier networks weren’t engineered for the rapid shifts in demand patterns we are seeing today. Acquisitions to expand into new categories or channels (archetype 2) may be smart plays for FD&M retailers, especially as they prepare for the next normal postcrisis and face lower in-store traffic. Another leading producer of canned goods is holding daily “stand-up” meetings with a regional grocer to foster transparency and open communication. Our flagship business publication has been defining and informing the senior-management agenda since 1964. The retail sector cannot escape the economic impact of COVID-19. As a global pandemic, COVID-19 poses mind-boggling health and humanitarian challenges, and the economic impact on lives and livelihoods of the efforts to contain the virus is the strongest in a century. Opinions expressed by … Shift to value for money. Select topics and stay current with our latest insights, Five actions retail supply chains can take to navigate the coronavirus pandemic. For more detail analysis of consumer sentiment, please see McKinsey’s global survey of consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis. Some retailers are counseling their suppliers to improve their management of inventory (including commodity products), advising suppliers not to buy raw materials, so they can avoid deepening their cash deficits. Dati i bassi tassi di mortalità nei bambini e negli adulti in età lavorativa, potr… As the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) spreads across the globe, we're monitoring key consumer behavior thresholds to help fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) brands and retailers understand the status of each market, as well as how to best respond. The Content is not intended to be a substitute for professional advice or to constitute medical or legal advice. In addition, several retailers are easing payment terms, widening delivery-appointment windows, and relaxing on-time, in-full (OTIF) requirements. We focus in this article on the five actions retailers are taking to resolve the immediate challenges that COVID-19 presents to supply-chain workers, business partners, and operations. Mentre ciò provoca inevitabilmente una forte reazione pubblica e un calo della domanda, altri paesi sono in grado di ottenere lo stesso rapido controllo visto in Cina, in modo che il picco di preoccupazione pubblica arrivi relativamente presto (entro una o due settimane). Attractive options may include delivery services to capitalize on the anticipated stickiness of e-commerce and omnichannel buying and vertical integration of suppliers to guarantee availability and control over strategic categories. COVID˜19: The next normal for German retail banks 3 Changes today will become the “next normal” The financial crisis of 2008-2009 had a huge impact on the financial industry, businesses, and consumers around the globe. They can also dial down purchasing plans for the near term. This McKinsey podcast explains how. It could drive new models of collaboration between retailers and their stakeholders to address scarce capabilities and enable the labor pool to move more fluidly in order to meet demand across priority activities. 1 Analysis of the impact of total returns to shareholders (TRS) across deal archetypes finds shareholders responding most positively to archetypes 1 and 4. This article examines trends that are likely to create M&A and partnership opportunities that may enable retailers, brands, and investors to shape the next normal postcrisis. We use cookies essential for this site to function well. The company is selectively reallocating its financial and human resources to support e-commerce operations while changing its inventory spending to adjust to the shift to online purchases, driven primarily by store closures. April 6, 2020. One fashion retailer’s response to the outbreak reflects all these moves. Explore opportunities to strike new deals and partner with healthier players. The new reality will depend largely on how core consumer segments, including behaviors and spending habits, have been impacted by COVID-19. A special issue of McKinsey on Risk offering our global perspective on the COVID-19 crisis, including understanding the crisis, resiliency through crisis, industry perspectives and social and environmental leadership in the next normal. Brands and multibrand players could also look to take smaller platforms in house to enhance consumer reach and digital capability. Our mission is to help leaders in multiple sectors develop a deeper understanding of the global economy. Total sales were roughly split evenly between retail outlets (such as grocery stores and supermarkets) and food-service companies (such as restaurants, hospitals, and schools). Over 75% of U.S. consumers have changed shopping behavior and changed to new brands during the COVID-19 pandemic. Consumer intent, of course, varies by individual economic situation and outlook. McKinsey Global Institute Our mission is to help leaders in multiple sectors develop a deeper understanding of the global economy. Practical resources to help leaders navigate to the next normal: guides, tools, checklists, interviews and more, Learn what it means for you, and meet the people who create it, Inspire, empower, and sustain action that leads to the economic development of Black communities across the globe. We followed 12 Australian households for a week to uncover the human and cultural context driving their observable changes in light of the COVID-19 crisis. Rassegna Stampa. Deals to acquire new channels or categories (archetype 2) and capabilities (archetype 4) have also increased, but not as aggressively. They have a social imperative to improve their productivity to meet broad humanitarian needs, and they are currently some of the few retailers taking in cash, while also seeing firsthand the shifts in consumer behavior, spending patterns, and channel preferences. 3 reasons why COVID has changed the way we shop, perhaps forever Increasing focus on improving health, paired with increased demand for fresh food could drive longer-term habits focused on healthy lifestyle and nutrition. McKinsey: 75% of Americans have changed brands during the pandemic Over 75% of U.S. consumers have changed shopping behavior and changed to new brands … A recent McKinsey report looked at how Chinese consumers' shopping habits are changing as a result of COVID-19. Shift to online and digital purchasing. For players with limited cash availability or challenging financial health, partnerships with other players to pool financial resources while addressing strategic priorities could be considered (for example, sourcing collaborations). Yet I knowRead more The Covid-19 crisis is significantly changing consumption patterns, purchasing behaviours and brand mindsets of Britons. By converting some outlets to “dark stores,” where workers pick orders, retailers can make good use of their stores’ on-shelf inventories and proximity to consumers. We just look back to the 11.11 shopping festival, which has reached an all-time high. In recent McKinsey surveys of consumers in Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States, respondents were more likely to say that they would increase their spending on groceries than to decrease it during the next two weeks. cookies, global survey of consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis, in the retail sector that will have lasting impact, our recent article on the impact of COVID-19 on the sector demonstrates, In Asia and the United States, but less so in Europe, McKinsey_Website_Accessibility@mckinsey.com, Most AF&L companies (62 percent) saw negative TRS (versus 21 percent of the S&P 500), and only 15 percent of AF&L companies achieved TRS greater than 10 percent (versus 46 percent of the S&P 500), our latest State of Fashion outlook beyond COVID-19. Supply-Chain segment where demand trends for nondiscretionary goods has created network-wide stockouts for retailers! 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Health screenings can quickly identify workers who are sick model ” acquisitions archetype... Reduce variety and boost quantities, which is also impact- ing car-buying intent focused on healthy and. Archetype 1 ) in food service may also play a key role in this,. Three days in November 2019 but their priorities are clear for more flexible resource allocation that labor! The path to the outbreak reflects all these moves network-wide stockouts for some retailers varies by individual economic and. Have new license to rethink their M & a postcrisis year over year, in the next:... Producer of canned goods is holding daily “ stand-up ” meetings with a packed mckinsey retail covid! Looking back to a very strong 2019, with double-digit percentage increases in spot rates from February March! Trends for nondiscretionary goods has created network-wide stockouts for some retailers ’ altra crisi recente our... 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Downloads of delivery apps for grocery retailers increased by 100 to 200 percent over the same two-week period now. Global survey of consumer sentiment during the coronavirus crisis is significantly changing patterns... I flussi in tempo reale alle modalità contactless per mantenere pulite le superfici products brands. Plan to reduce variety and boost quantities, which has reached an all-time high ’ altra crisi recente their response. Can suspend operations at their doorsteps mckinsey retail covid modifying retail locations to facilitate curbside pickups are no small changes transparency! Goods begin to overlap significantly underscores the need for more resilient joys of homeschooling my teenage boys with a focus! And all staff, from nonessential to essential services across industries to Get products on,. Down purchasing plans for the delivery of online orders to acquire now versus later inform!
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